Wednesday, May 17, 2006

best case scenario

Ngozi or Soludo become President next year and the administration acquires a rigorously competent approach to policy and planning. Post election, there follows a thought-through, inclusive and non-politically motivated constitutional review process mid-year which creates a more balanced federalism, removes immunity from prosecution for the governors (many of whom are forced to leave office, plus all the thieving ex-governors are banged up). The reform process continues apace, with labour-intensive sectors rapidly developing (especially in mechanised agriculture). Naija husbands (comme moi) get to get green kpali and so end that fiddly visa-Cerpac process, becoming proud ambassadors for brand Nigeria in the process. Obj continues to rear his chickens and mushrooms in rural bliss and grows into an elder-statesman figure. Atiku and IBB settle quietly in Nassarawa and Niger respectively, all hopes of reconquest faded into the sahelian sand. Nigeria gets taken off the FATF blacklist so homegrown master and visa cards are accepted globally. The naira becomes a convertible currency. FDI increases exponentially. Tinapa becomes the new Dubai of Africa. Cheap broadband suffuses across the land, creating an internal and external outsourcing industry, with hi-tech business parks sprouting up like mushrooms. The Chinese-built national railway system starts to emerge, starting with a high-speed bullet train linking Lagos with Abuja. And tens of thousands of diasporic Nigerians suddenly realise they're living in the wrong country..


Anonymous,  11:48 am  

I will pick Ngozi over Soludo, all this gist of Jim footing the bill for the education of his kids abroad, monetary presents that have facilitated the completion of his house in Lekki and not forgetting the 20 (?) billion that the banks contributed to fete him recently have made wonder about him.

Nkem 12:46 pm  

Jeremy, the problem with your utopia is that it is all contingent on who becomes president next year. Everything OBJ, Ngozi, and Soludo have done in the last three years could be unravelled by the wrong president. A lot of noise has been made about third term, but I reckon the governors would have had more to gain from it than the president. Other more important things in the amendment, such as rotational presidency and how oil is divided are vitally important. I sincerely hope there'lll also be a principled opposition to rotational presidency, it'll never work in Nigeria, and it won't help anyone.

Imnakoya 2:02 pm  

Quite an overly optimistic outlook this is, Jeremy. But a good one and desirable one. The major problem in Nigeria is the total disregard for the rule of law, order and justice, and that is the major reason why even more Nigerians are staying put overseas and pessimistic about issues back home.

This present administration appears to have as its focus economic recovery and liberalization rather than putting in place good governance and strengthening of the various institutions; an enabling environment that enables all that you've mentioned just does not exist in Nigeria yet. This I believe, should have received more attention since it is the bedrock of all advanced economies.

Chippla Vandu 2:11 pm  

“The major problem in Nigeria is the total disregard for the rule of law, order and justice, and that is the major reason why even more Nigerians are staying put overseas and pessimistic about issues back home.”

Except those Nigerians that get jobs in Nigeria which pay about 1 million Naira a month!

Akin 2:11 pm  


You are on new medication, no doubt!

Anonymous,  2:24 pm  

Jez - as for your vision all I can say is, those bilhazia drugs you are on are strooong - gimme some!

The best thing to have happened to Nigeria is not Ngozi's deal with Paris or the other structural positives that the technocrats have scored. It is in fact 3rd Term - or rather the debate and defeat of it.

The mere fact that a President tried it on and failed, so spectacularly, after such widespread debate, is monumental. The fact that politicians, media, opinion leaders, youth and anybodys and nobodys alike could come to a successfully implemented consensus cannot be over emphasized.

The moral victory, the clear message to Nigerian leaders couldn't have been bought with money. The 3rd Term debate is in fact OBJ's gift to the nation (although Baba probably dosen't see it that way - bless him).

Best case scenario for Nija? Refroms continue next year under a Northern President and Ibo Vice - paving the way in 2015 for Nigeria's first Ibo President. So I agree with your candidates (Soludo or Ngozi), I just think your timing is waaaay too optimistic.

Keep taking the drugs, bro.

PS:I happen to think rotational Presidency is a helpful discipline, even if we don't put it on paper. There is an unspoken understanding, a sense of fair-play, which Nigerians connect with. It was this spirit that brought in OBJ as pay-back for Abiola. If we can just keep democracy alive, we will always figure out the best way forward.

Alaye Scoro 3:53 pm  

Dude, you forgot about Nigeria winning the 2010 world cup in South Africa.

ayoke 8:42 pm  

My best part of this post is "Naija husbands (comme moi) get to get green kpali and so end that fiddly visa-Cerpac process".

You can't be more right. Our Constitution
allows Naija wives to acquire citizenship by mere registration (section 26) - a very simple procedure. On the other hand, Naija husbands have to undergo the tedious process of acquiring citizenship by naturalisation (section 27) - a process which requires, amongst other things, that the man must have been resident in Nigeria for a total of 15 years including one straight year preceding the application. Imagine!

They've fought and won a similar battle in Mauritius and we are bent on removing this blatant discrimination in our Constitution.

bjdon,  10:12 pm  

We will really only take off when we've got institutions that work regardless of who is in power. What good is it having effective people at the federal level if the state and local govts are corrupt and ineffective? It is the activities of these tiers of Govt that most closley affect the common man. We also need new politcal parties that will present their manifesto plans and will be held accountable on them. Waiting for that 'One good person' or the other to come and take Nigeria to the promise land is,Iam afraid,naive and unrealistic

Anonymous,  11:11 pm  

We are in the middle of a revolution right now - we just need to open our eyes to see it - and sieze it.

nigeria, what's new 11:55 am  

“There’s no use trying,” said Alice. “One can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” Lewis Carroll

Anonymous,  12:48 pm  

What's new:

What's your point?


Anonymous,  1:34 pm  

1. 1st successful civilain-to-civilian election
2. Banking reform
3. Debt pay off
4. Senate turn down financial inducements, to support a point of principle (i.e. no to 3rd Term)
5. Growing confidence of private sector
6. Spread of ICT's and national/international dialogue

Surely these signs are revolutionary - even if not a revolution per se.

I am very upbeat about Nija (don't ask me why I still live in london, sha. Dat one na long story).


Anonymous,  3:48 pm  

OK, so Nija is crap and we are all doomed.....

Feel better now?

All I can say is whilst we Nijas wallow in self doubt the Chinese, the Indians, the West and everyone else is fighting to get a piece of our emergent economy.

It's just so much easier to slag off Nija, than to roll up our sleves and get busy building a country we can be proud of.


Anonymous,  4:17 pm  

1. On a personal level I am part of a cyber association of over 500 professionals and academics from the same state currently developing a development framework based on an education model. There are three Gubernortorial candidates in our membership and we are confident some of our ideas will translate into concrete policy if one of them makes it to Government House next May.

2. Last December I was part of a group of 4 friends who organised a highly success development conference in Nija. The issues identified will be followed up in this year's event. We are presently registering a charity in the UK to leverage grant funding for development projects in education, primary health and women's empowerment.

3. Next month I fly to Nigeria to consult with the elders in my village as to why their local clinic collapsed last year. Based on the consultation, my wife and I will be raising funds to revive the project.

Dapo, no individual can change Nigeria single-handedly - not even a President. But if we all think positive and demonstrate some ordinary heroism, by doing what we can - Nija will change for the better with time.



St Antonym 5:00 pm  


What is your problem? Your anonymous interlocutor has been a perfect gentleman/lady. His/her responses have been thouhgtful, detailed, really quite impressive.

Why do you insist on your negativity? You're like a dog in a manger. You won't make a difference, you won't give either respect or acknowledgment to those who do make a difference.

Not good enough man.

j 5:16 pm  

Ogbeni St Antonym

You are clearly the one with the problem. Obokun has neither prevented you nor any other individual from commenting.

You sound clearly confused in the mind.

St Antonym 5:37 pm  

If certain individuals want to enjoy the modest but significant signs of progress in Nigeria, they should not be subjected to your cynicism. Someone says Nigeria will get better with time. You say "dream on." This individual lists all the tangible things they are doing to make Nigeria better, all you can respond with is "rebranding."

Look, I'm the first person to defend the right to criticism. Lord knows I do a lot of it myself. However, when you keep bashing away at only the negatives, in spite of evidence to the contrary, and in spite of the serious work of others, you are indeed being a dog in a manger. It's your right to be that, of course, and it's my right to point it out to you.

ai'hammed delot 6:05 pm  

i think St antonym has a point as if there is a dog in a manger trying to prevent an ox getting to some hay that the ox wants but the dog wont eat himself, then there is clearly a case for the dog to be put down, as he is obviously suffering from some sort of cerebro canine ailment which is causing it to display traits of selfishness and self annihilation -as surely it'll never eat the hay even if it wanted to - it just doesnt have the teeth for it.
A bit like people who turn their noses up and say things like "Nigeria will never change" when there are more nigerians out there than ever before trying to make a differernce. there are Nigerians who want change and think change is possible. if you dont want change you're entitled to your opinion but to sit there and constantly knock everything the man has said is nothing short of farsical.
Naija has already started to change for the better. of course we're still suffering and theres a long way to go but isnt the title of the blog "best case scenario"? why can we dream when we can see the sort of things happening now? when in the past did we ever have congressional debates about the constitution? why shouldnt we be positive about Nigeria? did you ever think you'll see the day: when you'd be served in less than 10 minutes in your bank? when we'd have multinational companies opening worthy food and financial institutions in our country? where mobile phones would become the norm? have you forgotten how bad things were electrically & generally utility wise a few years ago? how many shopping and cinema complexes were open during the abacha years? and this is just the start.

aihammed delot,  6:15 pm  

why? its too much hard work.

ai'hammed delot 6:21 pm  

why? its too much hard work.

Anonymous,  7:00 pm  

The beautiful thing about reform is that it is like a tiger cub when it is born. At that time the "owner" plays with it, twists it, turns it (selective arrest by EFCC, selective privatization etc).

But slowly (like joke, like play) the process matures, grows strong and people come to expect continuous improvement. That is the "tipping point" I believe Jez referred to somewhere.

At that stage the cub becomes a full grown tiger and even the "owner" needs to start showing some respect (think Gorbachev, de Klerk, etc).

I completely agree that Nija's reforms are far from the people as yet - but we are on a journey from which there is no turning back.

Call me a dreamer - absolutely!


j 7:00 pm  

Ogbeni ai'hammed delot,

Yet again, you have failed to understand Ogbeni Obokun's very valid point.

Please see my comment on you, on African shirts, regarding your inarticulation.

Funke,  7:14 pm  

Surely the whole point of never giving up is to provide a better FUTURE for all Nigerians at home and abroad.
"A man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?"

grace 7:31 pm  

Jeremy, are you sure Abuja has not brainwashed you into drumming up support for soludo, ngozi et al? Better be very careful! Neither is capable of becoming our leader, no way! Neither is the mesiah.

bjdon,  8:17 pm  

I think we all really need to get involved if Nigeria is to move forward and reach the heights we all feel it should. Iam in my 30's bassed in Europe with a fairly ok job, but Iam currently investing a significant amount to set up some ventures in my village, while the prime moitvation is to make profit I do hope that the economic and social impact there will be substantial. Who know with a little luck by next year the people in that vilage may be economically empowerd enough not to sell their votes during the elections. We can no longer relay on some 'Great leader' to come and make everything ok, it's time we all started trying to shape our Nations destiny both economically and politically

grace,  10:31 am  

J, stop using my name.

grace,  10:32 am  

J, stop using my name.

Olawunmi 7:11 pm  

i'd pick ngozi over soludo. his consolidation process wasnt well thought out.... which leads me to wonder if he is equipped for making the right decisions, howver good his intentions are

About This Blog

  © Blogger templates Psi by 2008

Back to TOP