Thursday, July 31, 2008

Nigeria will cease exporting oil in just over 30 years

According to a Chatham House paper here. It makes sobering reading. The historically weak governance structures of countries such as Nigeria do not place it in good stead to manage the transition beyond a hydrocarbon-based economy.

The intro blurb is pasted below, and here is the web page where the pdf link is found.
Since 2003, countries whose economies depend on the export of oil and gas have enjoyed a surge of revenue driven by rising oil prices and, in some countries, rising export volumes. The press has captured petroleum-fuelled prosperity in images of futuristic construction plans and the rocketing assets of sovereign wealth funds. However, this obscures important differences among oil and gas exporters in terms of reserves size and social development challenges.

Based on a major study of twelve hydrocarbon-exporting countries, this report shows that the boom does not guarantee economic sustainability for these countries, most of which face hard policy choices over domestic consumption, development spending and rates of economic growth. The report estimates the timeframes these countries have in which to make the necessary changes and examine their prospects for success given the existing human, institutional and technical capacity, competitive advantages, infrastructure and access to capital.


Anonymous,  8:03 am  

Better steal as much as we can before it runs out then - hadn't we?

Mr C 12:21 am  

funny as it may sound, i wish the oil should run out before the end of this year. This windfall from oil is clogging our minds and preventing us from developing capacity in the area where it is most needed; human capital.

Our strategy of throwing money into every problem is giving the Chinese leeway to actualize their vision of world domination at a cost to indigenous Nigerians (in terms of jobs, increased crime rate and substandard goods).

Beauty 12:36 pm  

"Nigeria will cease exporting oil in just over 30 years" does make sobering reading and to those that do not get it, there are other events accelerating to make oil irrelevant. This MIT news release has probably gone unnoticed. Inspired by the photosynthesis performed by plants, Nocera and Matthew Kanan, a postdoctoral fellow in Nocera's lab, have developed an unprecedented process that will allow the sun's energy to be used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen gases. Later, the oxygen and hydrogen may be recombined inside a fuel cell, creating carbon-free electricity to power your house or your electric car, day or night

Anengiyefa 12:17 pm  

An extract from the paper...

"The Nigerian non-hydrocarbon economy has been in decline for the last 50 years. Thus in the 1960s, agriculture (where most are employed) accounted for 70% of non-hydrocarbon GDP. In the 1970s this fell to 41% and in the last five years has averaged a mere 5.6% of GDP. The result has been a sustained growth in poverty for the majority of the population.Thus hydrocarbon dependence is high, accounting for70% of government revenue, 40% of GDP and 90% of foreign exchange."

What surprises me is that Nigerians are actually surprised by this. Hydocarbons are a finite resource and it is a given that at some point in the future petroleum oil shall no longer be a viable fuel source. It is certain then that alternative fuel sources will begin to take the lead in powering the world within the forseeable future and this post should come as a surprise only to those who lack foresight.

anonymaus,  4:21 pm  

TheWhiteNationalist (3 months ago)

The achievements of the NEW BLACK SOUTH AFRICA
1. Worlds highest rape rate
2. Worlds highest assault rate
3. Worlds highest murder rate
4. Worlds highest AIDS rate.
And now..daily power outages

SA is following the path of all black run countries..the spiral into ignorance, violence, crime, corruption.

(Taken from this page:

Well, one can dismiss such comments, but the performance of Nigeria and other black nations, allows such sweeping statements to be made (Botswana currently is an exception).

Will Nigeria be able to turn the tide, 30 years from now? Or, will Nigeria confirm the generalisation? Time will tell.

Anonymous,  12:21 am  

hang on a sec, for the last three years agric and services have been growing waaaaay faster than oil and gas. oil remains essential to the running of government and the contractocracy, and pretty much irrelevant to everyone else's normal livelihoods. which is why lagos will be fine, oil or no oil. maybe it will die a peaceful death and we'll all see the farmers getting rich off oil crops for biofuels again, and groundnut pyramids won't just be something we see on naira notes. sorry, got all pointlessly optimistic there for a minute...

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