Tuesday, November 14, 2006


I know nothing, I am an outsider, this country is highly complex. But sifting through all the conversations I've had, this is the pattern I see emerging:

1. The North is biding its time. Everything is under control
2. Obasanjo has resisted a Northern candidate, but appears now to have relented from what the weekend's papers said
3. The Northerner of choice at the Villa is Yar-adua (according to This Day Sunday)
4. There are quite a few good reasons for (3). The link between Obj and his older brother, the fact that he was one of the first to declare his assets in 1999, the fact that he is perceived as relatively innocuous and benign - similar to the choice for John Major over a decade ago - he offendeth no one.
5. Once a Yar-adua or similar benign/harmless/symbolically valuable northerner is backed by the PDP machinery (Obj is going to take over as Chairman of the party post May 2007), the race will be on for a technocrat pro-reform VP. This is where Ngozi may come back in, or perhaps even Oby (Igbo woman technocrat seems to be the formula).
6. Utomi and Duke should not be dismissed. If there were a functioning democratic process, Duke would probably do very well across the South (but less well in the North for obvious reasons). However, their function is not really to try and win, it is rather to alter the terms of the debate. Both candidates are easily smart enough to realise this. Their role is transitional - to change the paradigms in which politics takes place in Nigeria, away from quasi-tribalistic loyalty to one uber-party, towards pro-reform issues and policy oriented politicking, based on merit, achievement and rational argument.


Anonymous,  1:02 pm  

Duke should not be underestimated at all. I am pretty certain that he will do much better in the North than you are giving him credit for.

He went to the Fed Gov College Sokoto for his sec school and studied at ABU in Zaria and so he is not exactly alien to the North. Duke was best friends with the late Waziri Mohammed and he is still close friends with the ABU clique of El Rufai, Mohammed Sanusi Daggash, Ribadu etc who are gradually becoming power houses in the North.

The North is tired of recycled leaders & their failed promises. One thing the June 12 elections showed is that Northerners are capable to shed the ethnic toga and vote for whoever we believe will really uplift our lives and that is why Bashir Tofa was defeated even in his ward in Kano State!

BabaAlaye 1:07 pm  

There wont be any elections next year Jeremy.It sounds retarded but it's true.

About 2% of Nigerians have registered to vote.

ijebuman 1:39 pm  

Your theories sound interesting, i think Obj will settle for a northern candidate in order to checkmate IBB's ambitions.
The north will present IBB as its 'candidate' if Obj supports any candidate from another part of the country, the only way he can prevent IBB from getting to Aso rock is to ensure he supports another northern candidate (it would have been Atiku if he was still in his good books)

The upside of it all is IBB won't get to Aso rock, the downside is that we end up with another compromise candidate leading us on another 'israelite' journey...

Anonymous,  2:31 pm  

the first guy siad it all. the part of nigeria that has serious problems shedding ethnic politics is the west.

uknaija 6:47 pm  

Thanks for this, Jeremy. Depressing though it is...

Where does the South-South/Niger Delta "it's our turn" rhetoric fit into this analysis? Odili and Duke kinda fit

Anonymous,  6:56 pm  

I agree with both anonymous comments in all totality.

Jeremy, I disagree with you on the assertion that you are an outsider. That you are not.

Anthony Arojojoye 6:59 pm  

If you do not know, the politics in Nigeria is not an issue of 1+1=2. 1+1 can be equal to 5, or even half.
So don't get carried away by surface movement of politicians. The more you look, the less you see.
Like it or not babaalaye, there will be an election. Either people are registered or not, elections must and will hold next year. Even a voice vote will ensure that!

Dotun 8:10 pm  

i think there are some discussions, in some obscure villas, somewhere in nigeria maybe abroad, that will determine the fate of the nation next year. it is beyond the calculations being peddled by the press and regurgitated here. i agree with anthony, the more you look, the less you see.
jeremy you avent reply my mail, abi ur email no dey work?

Jeremy 8:31 pm  

Dotun I apologise I don't seem to have anything from you. Please email jeremy@bakareweate.com and I will definitely reply..

St Antonym 11:09 pm  

Won kan ge wa l'ege sha!

Dem go "toros" us again. Jesu.

Anonymous,  12:48 am  

Since this is a 'complaint' forum :D, Jeremy, how far as per the FMF website?

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